Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.010101 0.011409 0.012823 0.014468 0.016327 0.018364 0.020768
2025-12-07 0.007714 0.009440 0.011462 0.014008 0.017131 0.020842 0.025594
2025-12-14 0.006456 0.008345 0.010681 0.013790 0.017822 0.022888 0.029752
2025-12-21 0.005493 0.007424 0.009922 0.013397 0.018117 0.024323 0.033132
2025-12-28 0.005059 0.007109 0.009865 0.013854 0.019493 0.027209 0.038618
2026-01-04 0.004647 0.006761 0.009704 0.014113 0.020577 0.029743 0.043801
2026-01-11 0.004326 0.006496 0.009615 0.014440 0.021750 0.032462 0.049455
2026-01-18 0.003937 0.006086 0.009267 0.014335 0.022249 0.034202 0.053761
2026-01-25 0.003625 0.005759 0.009004 0.014319 0.022859 0.036128 0.058484
2026-02-01 0.003304 0.005384 0.008629 0.014085 0.023087 0.037453 0.062330
2026-02-08 0.003090 0.005160 0.008469 0.014171 0.023822 0.039622 0.067712
2026-02-15 0.002862 0.004889 0.008207 0.014060 0.024208 0.041231 0.072260
2026-02-22 0.002734 0.004781 0.008211 0.014407 0.025418 0.044349 0.079745
2026-03-01 0.002480 0.004434 0.007781 0.013967 0.025221 0.045028 0.082973
2026-03-08 0.002289 0.004182 0.007493 0.013749 0.025389 0.046345 0.087444
2026-03-15 0.002092 0.003900 0.007129 0.013357 0.025201 0.046991 0.090697
2026-03-22 0.002035 0.003871 0.007219 0.013813 0.026624 0.050712 0.100127
2026-03-29 0.001954 0.003792 0.007208 0.014072 0.027689 0.053831 0.108639
2026-04-05 0.001888 0.003734 0.007231 0.014398 0.028906 0.057332 0.118202
2026-04-12 0.001775 0.003574 0.007045 0.014292 0.029251 0.059135 0.124438
2026-04-19 0.001681 0.003445 0.006910 0.014277 0.029774 0.061328 0.131661
2026-04-26 0.001570 0.003274 0.006678 0.014044 0.029823 0.062548 0.136901
2026-05-03 0.001501 0.003184 0.006602 0.014129 0.030549 0.065230 0.145543